The Mega-Hasyim vote failed to reach the target and the nahdliyin vote failed to deliver. What will they do for the second round?
The situation was chaotic," was Kwik Kian Gie's comment on the PDI-P's headquarters following the first round of the presidential election. Kwik, who is chairman of the PDI-P's Central Executive Board noted that last week, planned meetings had been cancelled three times.
On Tuesdays there is normally a meeting at PDIP's headquarters in Lenteng Agung. But on that July 6, the day after the election, the offices in South Jakarta were completely deserted. Several party officials did arrive, but when they heard that PDI-P chairperson, Megawati, would not attend, one by one they left.
Two days later, a planned meeting was to be held to evaluate the provisional results of the presidential election. Kwik was surprised. He knew that Megawati was then heading a Cabinet meeting at the Palace. "What is happening? Why aren't the officials coordinating with the president's staff?" asked Kwik, annoyed. The meeting never did take place.
Last Saturday, another invitation to a meeting arrived on Kwik's desk. But this one was strange. They are usually signed by the party chairperson and secretary-general, but this time it was just the party chairman, Roy B.B. Janis, who signed the letter. Kwik was told that Megawati had gone to Bali for a break. He, too, decided to absent himself. "If Ibu is not there, the meeting is pointless," said Kwik, who also heads the National Development Planning Board.
But maybe Mega did need a holiday, in view of the intensity of her campaign activities. Top party officials could not be seen at the party headquarters in Lenteng Agung or at the Mega Center on Jalan Teuku Umar, Jakarta. "Let's just catch our breaths first," said Heri Akhmadi, Mega Center secretary. Neither was PDI-P deputy secretary-general Pramono Anung coming to the meeting. By phone, he said he was in Singapore for a medical checkup.
Top party officials did need to rest up while reflecting on the election outcome. The vote for the Megawati-Hasyim Muzadi ticket was far below the proclaimed target. Repeatedly, Megawati had declared her wish to win the presidential election in just one round. That meant that the ticket needed to win at least 50 percent of the vote plus one, as well as winning more than 20% of the vote in at least 16 provinces. The reality, as of last Saturday night, was that the Mega-Hasyim ticket won only 26.16 percent of the votes. They were in second place, behind the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono-Jusuf Kalla pair, who got 33.56 percent of the votes.
Megawati had begun to feel the lack of strong support on Monday evening, just a few hours after the close of the polls. She quickly summoned the party's secretary-general, Sutjipto and his deputy, Pramono, to her residence on Jalan Teuku Umar. There, according to a TEMPO source, Mega vented her disappointment. Although he confirmed the meeting had taken place, Sutjipto claimed his boss was not upset. "The atmosphere was relaxed. We chatted while we had dinner," he recalled.
Sutjipto did admit Mega asked about the votes which trailed behind those of SBY-JK right from the beginning. "Please study carefully those isolated areas where the Democratic Party is still weak but the vote for Yudhoyono was high," said Sutjipto, quoting Mega's instruction. Mega also criticized the PDI-P's organizational machine, which was not running effectively.
This was not the first time the PDIP misread the votes. In the legislative on April 5, PDI-P had set a target to win 42 percent, but won instead only 19 percent. This time the target was set high, to win in the first round. But Mega-Hasyim have come out second, as of the end of last week. This is what angered Kwik Kian Gie. "Who gave such wrong information?" Kwik fumed.
He apparently was angered by the fantastic but unrealistic predictions on paper. In practice, the Mega-Hasyim vote turned out disappointingly low in strong PDI-P bases of support. They won in Bali, but failed to achieve the targeted 70 percent of the vote. It pocketed only 56 percent of the 2.5 million votes. "The failure to meet the target was because many PDI-P supporters voted for the other candidate," said Ida Bagus Surjatmadja, who heads the Mega-Hasyim campaign team in Bali, to Rofiqi Hasan from TEMPO.
In East Java, the Mega-Hasyim vote was even lower than the PDI-P's vote in the recent legislative election. Support for Mega slumped particularly bad in the Mataraman—southern East Java area that bounds on Yogyakarta and Central Java. That's why Heri Akhmadi was almost immediately dispatched there to investigate the causes. "I am leaving tomorrow," he said on Thursday.
In North Sumatra, Mega came through unscathed. In this virtual "vote mine" for the Wild Bull Party, the Mega-Hasyim pair came out ahead of all their opponents. "Reaching 50 percent of the vote is a very pleasing achievement," said the Mega-Hasyim campaign team head for North Sumatra, H. Ahmad Azhari, to Bambang Soedjiartono from TEMPO. Initially they had only targeted 20 percent of the vote there.
Some areas provided a rich yield while others slumped. So, what is needed is better and more complete preparation for the final round on September 20. The PDI-P plans to hold a national working meeting this week. "But the timing has still not been decided," said Sutjipto.
Apart from internal consolidation, Mega's team have begun their political lobbying . The President's husband, Taufiq Kiemas, who for weeks had been asked to "meditate in silence," has reportedly been seen coming down from his mountain of solitude. Last Friday, he joined Golkar chairman, Akbar Tandjung for Friday prayers at the Baiturrahman Mosque in the MPR/DPR Complex, Senayan.
Taufiq Kiemas usually performs his Friday prayers at the Sunda Kelapa Mosque, Jakarta. But apparently it was more important to meet Akbar, fulfilling his religious obligations at the same time. Was he laying the basis of a coalition with Golkar? "There have been no concrete steps, so far," said Akbar Tandjung evasively. Taufiq, too, avoided our questions, saying, "Today there will be no comment. I have a toothache."
It may not be Golkar . But the Mega-Hasyim team probably can persuade the United Development Party (PPP) to ally with them. "If we look at this up close, then we would of course choose Megawati," PPP chairman, Arief Mudatsir Mandan told Jobpie Sugiharto from TEMPO. To date, Arief said, the PPP has collaborated rather closely with the PDI-P during the Mega-Hamzah Haz administration.
Efforts to lengthen Mega's train of supporters are also under way in various areas elsewhere. Sirmadji, chairmanof the Mega-Hasyim campaign team in East Java claims to have already formed a lobbying team even though he had no specific instructions from Jakarta to do it. The East Java team has begun to approach the supporters of Amien Rais, Hamzah Haz, and Wiranto—the three other presidential candidates who will almost certainly fail to go to the second round.
Another way to seek support is to approach the "non-voters." Sri Untari, PDI-P Malang Secretary, says that in her area the non-voters made up 26.81 percent of all registered voters. That is why she intends to approach them.
Hasyim Muzadi has been just as busy. One member of his success team confirmed that last week his man, the chairman of the Central Board of the NU, had met with Muhammadiyah Central Committee chairman, Ahmad Syafi'i Ma'arif. Hasyim is hoping that the Muhammadiyah's support for Amien Rais will be transferred to his ticket in the second round.
Additionally, the NU's bases in East Java will now operate intensively. K.H. Ali Maschan Moesa, chairman of NU in East Java, is sure that NU members there will flock to support Hasyim. The strong competition between the Mega-Hasyim and Wiranto-Solahuddin Wahid camps in the July 5 election, he claims, actually led to some of the NU vote going to the Yudhoyono-Kalla ticket. He said that NU members applied the suggested norm under Islamic law of: al khuruj minal khilaf mustahaqqun. This means that the avoidance of two conflicts is to be preferred. But, in the second round, "the NU will automatically choose Pak Hasyim," said Ali Maschan.
Kwik Kian Gie considers that statement to oversimplify the issue. He sees the Abdurrahman Wahid factor also at work, as the latter had chosen to abstain in the first round, and has a significant following among NU members. Other NU members, Kwik says, cannot be that easily directed. They will choose whoever approaches them. He regards the approach used by the Yudhoyono-Kalla team as being very effective.
It was this tactic that apparently brought SBY-JK to win the first round. Mega' percentage of the vote has changed little from the vote the PDI-P won in the April 5 election. PDI-P then won 18.53 percent of the vote. The Mega-Hasyim ticket has now won 26 percent, adding 7.5 percent. That is why one member of the Mega-Hasyim team in Solo says votes from NU members is low.
While consolidation of the Mega-Hasyim success team still has some ways to go, the team also lacks unity at all levels, either, from the central down to village one. He believes that the Mega-Hasyim success team ought to be centered around the Mega for President team, not the Mega Center, which he considers to be just a "consultant."
But, says Kwik, the Mega Center has really now become the cornerstone of a Mega victory, while the people in the party's structural positions tend to remain silent for fear of being held accountable. With all this, "I am pessimistic Ibu Mega will win in the second round," said Kwik Kian Gie.
That statement may be too premature to make right now. But there would certainly be no harm in the PDI-P straightening everything out. The could start by holding its meetings as scheduled.
Hanibal W.Y. Wijayanta, Imron Rosyid (Solo), Kukuh S.W. (Surabaya), Sohirin (Semarang)
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