A Coalition Powered by Enticements Cabinet Speculation

The National Coalition is developing quickly, with ministerial positions serving as its driving force.

IT'S been more than seven days, it seems, since Akbar Tandjung paused for breath. Early last week he traveled the length of Java and two days later flew to Kalimantan, only to depart the next day for North Sumatra. Akbar then headed east, first to Bali, then to Nusa Tenggara. In the space of just a few days, the General Chair of the Golkar Party visited 10 provinces. Even the wedding preparations on August 29 for Akbar's his oldest son, Ahad, were left in the hands of close friends.

At each stop, Akbar spoke to party faithful for two to three hours. He called for members to support Megawati Sukarnoputri in the September 20 election, a recommendation secured two weeks ago when Golkar and Megawati announced the formation of the National Coalition. Golkar—along with the PDI-P, United Development Party (PPP), and the Prosperous Peace Party (PDS)—at that time declared a formal resolve to support the Megawati-Hasyim pairing. At Jakarta's Gran Melia Hotel, those present at the briefing included Gen. (ret) R. Hartono (Concern for the Nation Functional Party—PKPB), Sukmawati Sukarnoputri (Marhaenisme Indonesian National Party), and Bursah Zarnubi (Reform Star Party—PBR), all three of which officially expressed support of the coalition.

But it was Akbar's support that truly pleased Megawati. Last Friday morning, for example, the president smiled lightly, even with Akbar's late arrival at a coalition meeting at her residence on Jalan Teuku Umar in Jakarta. "Ibu Mega was very happy and followed the meeting closely," a top Golkar official at the meeting said.

Akbar led the meeting and said Golkar was optimistic it could mobilize its grass roots to support Megawati's ticket. The coalition arrived at a target of 51-71 percent of the vote, and Megawati, who that morning wore a light-red top and batik, smiled. "We must share the work to make our moves effective, we have only 24 days left," Megawati said, according to PPP Deputy Secretary-General Endin A.J. Soefihara.

Megawati subsequently requested that the members of her task force watch closely the electorate for any unsettling signs—because change occurs so easily—and to monitor opinion poll results. Akbar told Megawati he had already visited 10 provinces and would see the remaining 22 in the next two weeks. "Of the 440 regencies/major cities," Akbar said, "the National Coalition already has control of 270."

The Golkar Chair's resolve in supporting Megawati has caused near apoplexy among supporters of Wiranto, Golkar's ill-fated presidential candidate who has since accused the "Banyan Tree" party of not seriously backing his candidacy. "This is very hurtful," said Muladi, a member of the Wiranto campaign team and a member of Golkar's Advisory Board.

Akbar's enthusiasm comes as no surprise, as Megawati's offer to coalition members includes the allocation of ministerial positions. The number of posts to be given out will "still be proportional," PDI-P Secretary-General Pramono Anung Wibowo said, which will clearly benefit Golkar.

Akbar says, however, that there has been no talk of who will sit in the cabinet. He said Friday's coalition meeting did not discuss it. "We leave that up to the president," Akbar said. "That is her prerogative."

Upon opening the National Coalition Media Center at the Aryaduta Hotel in Jakarta, Megawati's husband, Taufiq Kiemas, mentioned four strong candidates for ministerial positions. They are University of Indonesia economist Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) economist Mari Pangestu, Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Rector Azyumardi Azra, and senior lecturer in law at Hasanuddin University Achmad Ali.

Taufiq would not, however, reveal which posts each might fill. Another PDI-P official did say that Sri Mulyani would become Minister of Finance, while Mari Pangestu would serve as one of the ministers in the economic team. Unfortunately, both economists were unavailable for comment. Azyumardi, who is reportedly pegged to be Minister of Education, was also unwilling to give clarification. "It is still unclear what is being offered," Azyumardi said, according to TEMPO News Room's Multazam. Achmad Ali, however, did acknowledge his willingness to serve. "I am always ready to serve the state," Achmad said. He will reportedly replace either M.A. Rachman as attorney general or Yusril Ihza Mahendra in the Department of Justice.

Pramono said potential candidates for cabinet posts were discussed at a meeting of party heads. He even added that the Chief of Police for Bali, Insp. Gen. I Made Mangku Pastika, is also a strong candidate for the cabinet. "Pastika would be in law," Pramono told TEMPO reporter Rofiqi Hasan. Pastika himself, however, claims he has not yet been contacted. "Who am I, after all?" he said modestly.

Megawati is said to have earmarked three important ministerial posts for top non-party professionals. These three include posts in the Department of the Economy, such as coordinating minister for the economy, finance minister, and state-owned enterprises minister, plus ministerial posts in the legal field, including the attorney general, National Police chief, and justice minister, while the last is the Department of Education. Those important posts have been deliberately assigned to professionals to ensure that credibility and integrity are maintained.

The PDI-P is prepared to distribute posts to parties that support the coalition, a division that will likely be based on a party's proportion of seats in the legislature. Every 20 seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) will entitle a party to one full ministry. Parties with fewer than 20 seats in the DPR but 15 or more will be given one position as a non-ministry minister.

On that basis, the PDI-P, with 109 seats in the DPR, will get six places in the cabinet. Golkar, with 127 seats, will get seven ministerial positions. The PPP will hold three ministers, because it won 58 seats in the DPR. Additionally, the PBR and PDS, with 13 and 12 DPR seats, respectively, will each receive one ministry. "The PKPB and Marhaenisme Indonesian National Party will not apparently be given ministries," a member of the coalition executive committee said.

The formula for distributing cabinet positions was determined at a routine meeting held among top party officials ahead of the August 19 coalition announcement. Specific cabinet posts have not been finalized, but one PDI-P official said each party had submitted a cabinet proposal. An ultimate cabinet makeup, that official said, must await results from September 20 polls.

Apart from the division of cabinet posts, the positions of adviser to the president, together with those of Speakers of the MPR and DPR, are also up for discussion. The office of presidential adviser—a new position—will almost certainly be filled by Akbar Tandjung. PPP General Chair Hamzah Haz and PBR Chair K.H. Zainuddin M.Z. will be members of the advisory council. "Pak Kiai M.Z. will not be in the cabinet," PBR Chairman Zainal Maarif said.

In a proposal submitted to Megawati, Golkar requested the seats of minister of trade, minister of industry, minister of transport and communications, minister of social welfare, minister for the economy, minister of education, as well as minister of justice.

Even if talk about the Banyan Tree's ministerial candidates is mostly whispered, there is interest in the "Akbar Boys," as Golkar officials loyal to Akbar are called. They are Bomer Pasaribu, Slamet Effendy Yusuf, Mahadi Sinambela, Rambe Kamarulzaman, Rully Chairul Azwar, Aulia Rachman, Freddy Latumahina, Theo L. Sambuaga, Ade Komaruddin, and Budi Harsono. All, when requested to confirm their status, were evasive. "Nothing's settled," Bomer said. "Don't be in such a rush."

According to reports, Akbar is also eyeing the DPR speakership for Golkar. The question of Akbar's replacement in the DPR has provoked hot competition among senior Golkar figures. Initially, Akbar had readied three candidates, Fahmi Idris, Slamet Effendy Yusuf, and Agung Laksono. But as Fahmi expressed support for the coalition's competition, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, his name was scratched out. "I know my place," Fahmi said. "I want to become a useful member of a first-class House Commission I."

Slamet is quite close to Akbar. One PDI-P official said, though, that he is considered to have too enthusiastically supported Wiranto in the presidential election's first round. As a result, he will likely be buried in a cabinet. Slamet says his support for Wiranto was on Akbar's orders. "Never mind," he said, "I won't then get a big head."

Agung can be considered the strongest Golkar candidate for DPR Speaker. As the head of the party's organization, cadre formation, and membership sections, Agung's position is undeniably a strong one. He is the party's number three person after Akbar and Secretary-General Budi Harsono. He has the potential to occupy the post of Golkar Party General Chair, the position that Akbar currently holds. "But Agung has already sworn that he won't make any move," a member of Golkar's executive committee said.

The United Development Party is likely to win three cabinet posts and is seeking ministries the party already controls, including those of cooperatives and social welfare. The additional seat PPP has expressed interest in is religious affairs minister. PPP has submitted names for the posts that include the party's Secretary-General Lt. Gen. (ret) M. Yunus Yosfiah, PPP Chair Ali Marwan Hanan, Chair of the PPP Election Victory Committee, Endin A.J. Soefihara, and PPP Deputy Secretary-General Chozin Chumaidy. But when asked for comment, all four were vague. "What is important is that we all work hard to win the election," Chozin said.

The Prosperous Peace Party's seat is very likely to go to the party's general chair, Ruyandi Hutasoit, who is expected to be installed as youth and sports minister. Because it has been in coalition with Megawati since the first round, PDS has reportedly requested an allocation of two more seats. Ruyandi denies the seat request. "We have never talked to [Megawati] about that," he told Dimas Adityo from TEMPO News Room.

The Reform Star Party was more open and has submitted for ministerial candidacy PBR Secretary-General Dja'far Badjeber and the party treasurer, Ahsanul Kosasih. "Those are our candidates," Zainal Maarif said simply.

The PDI-P itself has yet to reveal its ministerial candidates. "It all depends on Ibu," PDI-P Secretary-General Sutjipto said, referring to Megawati. Only two figures are mentioned with any frequency—Pramono Anung for minister state secretary and Heri Akhmadi. Reached for comment, both individuals were vague. "I don't know anything, so don't ask," Heri said, laughing.

The proportional model of dividing positions will also be applied in the DPR. The position of speaker will very likely remain in Golkar's hold, and two deputy speakers' positions will almost certain be held by the PDI-P and PPP. An additional post could also go to the National Coalition, which is eyeing chairmanships of all the commissions, chair of the budgeting committee, chair of the legislation body, and chair of the inter-parliamentary working body.

If everything goes smoothly, this political partnership is also likely to make a clean sweep of the positions of regional heads, as well as the leaderships of all the provincial, city, and regency-level DPRDs (local legislative councils). Under the provisions of the new Law on the Arrangement and Standings of the DPR and DPRD, the leadership of the DPR and DPRDs is composed of one speaker and three deputies. Given its powerful composition, the coalition has a good chance to secure all positions of leadership. "We just have to decide who and from which party will be speaker, then the others will be deputy speakers," Pramono said.

In a mapping determined last week at a coalition coordination meeting, it was estimated that 97 percent of the district head positions (governors and regents/mayors) would be controlled by Golkar, PDI-P, and PPP. Golkar already has power over 270 regents and mayors from a total of 440 regencies/cities. The division of positions will follow the potential strengths of the coalition member parties in each area. "We could support a candidate from the PDI-P in one area, and someone from Golkar, the PPP, or maybe PDS, elsewhere" a PDI-P official said.

The Yudhoyono camp claims not to be shaken by National Coalition plans for power sharing. "Any coalition now may well be different from the one the people determine on September 20," Yudhoyono said.

Yudhoyono insists that he does not want to reveal the names of ministerial candidates who will later make up his cabinet. "It could give rise to unwanted problems," he said.

But Jusuf Kalla confirmed that their cabinet would have 30 ministers. "Its makeup could be added to or reduced as is the president's right," Kalla said, adding that the Yudhoyono camp is working on building a coalition of its own, even if the terms are not binding. Kalla recounted Yudhoyono's meeting with Akbar some time ago. At that time, Kalla said, Golkar began the talks of coalition-building with an immediate inquiry into cabinet post allocation.

Yudhoyono's camp is prepared to accept suggestions from the public concerning who should make up the cabinet. "One is Todung Mulya Lubis," Kalla said. Lubis's name came as a result of a suggestion from a member of the public. He is now being considered for attorney general. Asked for clarification, Lubis was evasive. "I have no comment, I don't want to prematurely get a swelled head," he told Danto from TEMPO News Room.

Yudhoyono is reportedly saving several posts for non-party candidates. He has indicated plans, for example, that a Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) figure will fill the position of religious affairs minister. "In terms of sociological considerations, a minister of religion from the NU would be a good individual, have a wide viewpoint, and be a good Muslim," Yudhoyono said. General Chair of the NU Central Committee Masdar F. Mas'udi said, however, that Yudhoyono had yet to begin negotiations.

In the Yudhoyono corner, a clear map of the ministerial candidates is still obscured by the smoke of battle. Only Lt. Gen. Sudi Silalahi, former secretary to the coordinating minister for politics and security, Subur Budhisantoso, general chair of the Democrat Party and Rachmat Witoelar, a member of the Yudhoyono success team, are predicted to be likely ministers in a Yudhoyono cabinet. Sudi, it is thought, will be coordinating minister for politics and security, while Rachmat will become foreign affairs minister. "I hope they get those positions," Budhisantoso said.

Asked about which positions each was likely to fill, however, Budhisantoso, Chair of the Development Regulation Institution of the University of Indonesia, was vague. "To be honest," he said, "I have never been asked to comment."

Yudhoyono has promised that, just before the election's second round, he will reveal the nominations, criteria, composition, anatomy, design, and structure of his proposed cabinet.

Both camps—the mighty National Coalition and the more reserved Yudhoyono-Kalla ticket—will on September 20 silence most speculation.

Hanibal W.Y. Wijayanta, Widiarsi Agustina, Yandrie Arvian (Jakarta), Agus Rahardjo (Surabaya)

Megawati’s Ministers
Professional
Minister of Finance:	Sri Mulyani
Minister in the Team for the Economy:	Mari Pangestu
Minister of Education:	Azyumardi Azra
Minister of Law & Legislation or Attorney General:	Achmad Ali
Chief of Police/Attorney General:	Insp. Gen. Pol. I Made Mangku Pastika
PDI-P
Minister State Secretary:	Pramono Anung
Another Minister:	Herry Ahmadi
Golkar
Minister of Trade:	Agung Laksono
Minister of Industry:	Bomer Pasaribu
Minister of Transport:	Rully Chairul Azwar
Minister of Social Welfare:	Mahadi Sinambela/Slamet Effendi Yusuf
Minister of Law & Legislation:	Aulia Rachman
Minister for Youth & Sports:	Rambe Kamarulzaman
Minister for Foreign Affairs:	Theo L. Sambuaga/Marzuki Darusman
Minister for Eastern Indonesia:	Freddy Latumahina
Minister of Communications & Information:	Budi Harsono
Minister for Administrative Reforms:	Ade Komaruddin
DPR Speaker:	Agung Laksono/Slamet Effendi Yusuf/Fahmi Idris
PPP
Minister of Social Welfare:	Endin A.J. Soefihara/Yunus Yosfiah
Minister for Cooperatives:	Ali Marwan/Chozin Chumaidi
PBR
Minister for SMEs/Social Welfare:	Djafar Badjeber/Ahsanul Kosasih
PDS
Minister for Youth & Sports:	Ruyandi Hutasoit/Magit L.D. Tewu

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