Gus Dur Vs Gus Dur
President Abdurrahman Wahid has been making a lot of claims and accusations recently. He said a number of a people are busy plotting to overthrow him. Sometimes he named them but more often he did not clearly identify them. He has got a lot of people guessing. Is there really such a serious threat to the head of state of the Republic of Indonesia, the first who was ever elected legally and democratically?
Some of his supporters have formed a united front and are hunting for political bullets to shoot down those accused of the plotting. The more fanatical even angrily threaten to bring the masses onto the streets, armed and ready for action. Those Wahid has accused are busily darting back and forth, denying and counter-attacking.
It so happens that squeezed in the middle between these two sides are the ordinary Indonesians, who are getting anxious. No one feels secure, the rupiah is plunging and hope for a better future is harder and harder to find.
It is fair to say that the only ones who can profit from this situation are those do not care about Indonesia's future. Yet the country's political leaders, those who present themselves as the bringers of the people's aspirations, are spending their time squabbling. The distance between what they see as important and what the wider community feels is important is getting wider and wider. Many Indonesians still remember how their last experiment with democracy failed in the 1950s. They are terrified that their nation's aspiration to be the world's third largest democracy may again turn out to be Mission Impossible.
Some close to the Presidential Palace feel the same way. Gus Dur, as Wahid is popularly known, "enjoys putting his followers in a difficult position". So says one of his friends. The president should pay good attention to this honest complaint. Many supporters of Indonesia's fourth president are well known pro-democracy figures. They have first-class reputations and are known not to be in this thing for themselves.
If they are disappointed they have good reasons. Gus Dur mainly has himself to blame for the scandals which have marred his public image. His tendency to say a lot without much preparation, to do things without paying close attention to the rules of state has caused a lot of problems. Such weaknesses are easily accepted at the start of a president's term, when there is usually a honeymoon period and people realize the learning curve is very steep. But when they are repeated as many times as this they just become an irritant.
Almost all analysts agree that Wahid is very intelligent, has a gleaming vision of statehood, has a high level of credibility after his struggle to uphold democracy and respect for human rights when Suharto was in power. There was high hope in him when he was elected as Indonesia's president, which turned to disappointment when a series of corruption scandals popped up involving people in his inner circle. Like Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde, Gus Dur has two personalities which are 180 degrees apart. A visionary who astonishes many people and a poor manager who thinks he is much better than he is.
Gus Dur the visionary was seen as the right choice to rescue the Indonesian nation from the threat of disintegration. His struggle to sow the spirit of tolerance, ignoring differences of religion, tribe, race, even ideology can be said to be close to legendary. He not only carried on the work of his father in uniting the Islamic and nationalist camps to forge a nation of Indonesia, but also to educate and prepare the members of the country to become members of the world community who count.
Unfortunately, Gus Dur the manager has not managed to find solutions. On the contrary he has created new problems. He has not managed to keep corruption out of the presidential palace. For this reason, his government's efforts to restore the national economy are stumbling. The pledge of this government to uphold the law is sounding hollow. And as a result belief in the ability of civil society to manage Indonesia are being shaken. After that the temptation of authoritarianism could easily start to rear its ugly head once more.
Such a threat cannot be taken lightly, as one relevant study shows. Political analyst Samuel Huntington looked at around 30 countries that had gone through a transition to democracy. Where the per capita income was above US$3,000 per year, the transition went smoothly and there was virtually never any threat of a coup. Where per capita income was between US$1,000 and US$3,000, there were a few attempted military coups but they all failed. The men with the guns successfully took power in countries with per capita annual income of less than US$1,000, especially those where it was around US$500.
Indonesia's average per capita income right now is around US$600. According to Huntington's study, this means there is a high risk of the return of a non-democratic regime. This threat must be taken very seriously by Gus Dur, his pals and all other politicians in their political maneuvering.
All Indonesians must be united in maximizing the ability of Gus Dur as a visionary and minimizing his weaknesses as a manager. It really is very ironic. We have to protect the good Gus Dur from the arrogant Gus Dur.
CM