Is it Time For Megawati To Lead?
It is not clear yet whether Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri will have an increased role to play or not. What is clear is: no sacking of the President, no massive demonstrations for and against, and no deployment of troops. At this year’s MPR Annual Session, no members are punching each other like a certain other Asian country.
Perhaps this is a good lesson for the confused and the nervous: verbal criticism between the government and parliament is an inevitable fact; it is even good in managing a republic. Those in the military or the street activists who are always spouting about the conflict among the political elite must reflect again. An argument is not a conflict. It will not cause Indonesia to disintegrate. Especially since Indonesian politicians seem to have come to realize that there are no absolute demands. Politics is a joint effort to manage a world with all its limitations and temporary nature by beings with all their limitations and temporary nature. It is not a holy war and no war is being waged. Therefore, it is fitting that the rupiah is gaining strength.
The results of this year’s annual session are cause for optimism. Both the People’s Consultative Assembly or MPR and the House of Representatives, the DPR, will emerge as institutions worthy of attention. President Abdurrahman Wahid, or any president of the Republic of Indonesia, must cultivate a better lobbying system to garner support in Senayan’s Parliament building. Institutionalizing the democratization process is important so that people’s and political party representatives will reach a stage where they are strong and respected. They haven’t reached it yet, but the exercise leading up to it is taking place this month and has significant benefits.
One of the fruits of the exercise is learning the meaning of compromise. Compromise is a virtue in democracy. Why? Because it’s born out of one’s ability to recognize one’s own weaknesses. Because it’s born out of one’s courage to see what is good and right being offered by the other side. Compromise embraces the belief that no matter what, the link—in this case, the link as Indonesians—must be maintained by the competing parties.
It is this virtue that is being shown by many people, especially by Gus Dur (President Wahid). By handing over the day-to-day running of the government to Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri he’s not being benevolent. He’s being realistic. He sees changes happening and acts accordingly.
The Alliance is Changing
One significant change is the flagging alliance between the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle or PDI-P for short, and the National Awakening Party, PKB. In the past this alliance was based on the PDI-P leaders’ opinion that PKB was a partner who would take Megawati to the Palace. Based on this assumption (which shows how weak the party’s information system was), PDI-P would not try to gather further support. In addition, this party also used the New Order’s political style, which was based on suspicion, resulting in the narrowing of support. All that proved to be wrong. Long before the 1999 General Election, it had always been Gus Dur’s intention to become president. He tricked Megawati into believing that he was a partner, not the competition.
Now, however, PDI-P is closer to Golkar. This proves that in politics, there’s no such thing as forever friends or eternal enemies. There’s only interest. These days PKB is left in the cold. When the MPR brought Gus Dur to the presidency, PKB worked together with the Central Axis. But this cooperation is now history. Furthermore, a number of legislators from parties that are part of this axis such as PBB and PPP, and also PAN, would like to remove Gus Dur. Movement towards it—and the new alliance pattern—became obvious at the garnering of support for the use of the interpellation right.
With PKB standing all alone, Gus Dur offered a compromise. Remember: compromises are made with political opponents only. It is thus apparent that Gus Dur’s and Megawati’s relationship is no longer that of "brother and sister." Discussions can be held at some length to analyze the reason, however, at this stage what is important is that not only is Megawati keeping her distance from Gus Dur, but she’s also in a stronger political position. She has the support of not only the PDI-P and Golkar alliance (two major winners of the 1999 General Election), but also the Central Axis, especially the Islamic parties who rejected her in the last presidential election.
All this, of course, is due to Gus Dur taking the wrong step as well as saying and doing the wrong things. However, there’s a ray of hope in the power constellation at the national level: The dividing line between Islamic political parties and religion-based parties is not as sharp as before. The failure to return the "Jakarta Charter"—an attempt dangerous to human rights and the basic tenet for the founding of the Republic of Indonesia—shows that the MPR is handling religious issues wisely and proportionally.
Therefore, there’s still a chance for Indonesia not to be constantly vulnerable to disintegration. But the question is still, will it last? This may depend on how Gus Dur’s and Megawati’s responsibilities are divided.
Unanswered Questions
In connection with Megawati taking on a more active role, some basic questions still need to be answered. Firstly, how will the division of duties be separated from the division of power?
In other words, how much influence does the Vice President have on forming a new cabinet? Will Megawati have the right to determine departments’ structure and personnel? Can she simply give in? Is Gus Dur strong enough to reject bargaining, let’s say with PDI-P and Golkar, in setting up this government?
Secondly, Gus Dur assigned Megawati to manage daily "technical" affairs. Gus Dur-Mega’s government is not known for its clear agenda and strategy. Therefore, it’s not clear which is strategic and technical. Can Megawati, for example, cancel a contract that has been signed but is deemed inappropriate in electricity, or revoke foreign investment in internet business? Are those things categorized as technical affairs?
Thirdly, how to avoid the one-ship-two-captains syndrome? Where will the government seat be: at the Vice President’s or the President’s office? What will become of the Cabinet Secretary position? With the President and Vice President coming from two competing parties that are no longer politically close, how to prevent finger-pointing in the case of failures or credit-claiming in the case of success?
All these questions must be carefully considered and anticipated right from the outset. It is undoubtedly pleasant to discuss who will sit in the cabinet, but before that, the Gus Dur-Mega duo must be prepared to prevent chaos.
(LR)